DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.

Tesla offers an alluring precedent for investors considering Space Exploration Technologies. Tesla went public in 2010, and its average annualized return of 40.11% means that $5,000 invested 16 years ago would now be worth more than $1 million.

Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO and cofounder, recently took SpaceX public under the Nasdaq symbol SPCX. Investors are now weighing whether the rocket company can produce the sort of wealth creating returns that transformed some early Tesla shareholders into millionaires.

Some estimates suggest the SpaceX initial public offering made more than 4,000 current and former employees millionaires. Many had been with the company during years in which SpaceX helped reshape space travel by pioneering the routine reuse of orbital class rocket boosters.

Falcon 9, SpaceX’s primary operational rocket, uses a reusable first stage booster. That capability has helped the company substantially reduce space travel costs while building an industry leading position supported by contracts with government agencies and other institutions.

SpaceX is also developing Starship, which is designed to be fully reusable. Its planned architecture includes the Super Heavy first stage booster and the Starship upper stage spacecraft, potentially allowing the company to reduce launch expenses again and improve margins and profits.

The rocket business is only part of the investment case. SpaceX has two additional operating segments, including internet connectivity delivered through a constellation of Low Earth Orbit satellites and an artificial intelligence business offering AI computing capacity.

Connectivity is currently the company’s most profitable segment. Its customer base and revenue are growing rapidly, while SpaceX plans to launch its next generation Starlink satellites to expand the number of customers the network can serve.

SpaceX has also signed important AI computing agreements this year and sees a large opportunity in that market. The company eventually hopes to address limitations affecting hyperscalers’ AI expansion by providing computing services through AI satellites.

Recent financial results highlight the company’s momentum, although profitability remains a work in progress. Second quarter revenue climbed 92% from the prior year to $7.8 billion, while the net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1 billion in the year ago period.

Analysts, on average, expect SpaceX to report earnings per share of $0.07 this year, based on estimates available at the time of writing. Musk has said the company’s internal projection calls for $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.

Reaching that projection would require SpaceX to continue innovating and successfully execute its plans over the medium term. Over a longer period, the company could potentially outperform broader equities, but the stock market has already assigned considerable value to that possibility.

Investors carried lofty expectations into the SpaceX initial public offering because of its space industry leadership, expansion into lucrative markets, and Musk’s record of guiding Tesla. The resulting premium helps explain why the shares have not gained much value despite the company’s subsequent progress.

SpaceX trades at 200x forward earnings, suggesting that substantial future success is already embedded in its valuation. If Starship flight tests fail to proceed as planned, or if other company initiatives encounter setbacks, the stock could experience a severe decline.

SpaceX may still turn average investors into millionaires over roughly the next 20 years, but the current valuation makes the shares risky and likely to remain highly volatile. Matching Tesla’s returns over the next 16 years appears extraordinarily unlikely because that outcome would lift SpaceX’s market capitalization to about $441 trillion.

That theoretical valuation would equal roughly 14 times the current annual gross domestic product of the United States. A more measured strategy would be to wait for a meaningful decline in SpaceX’s share price and then hold the investment for the next 30 years.

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor team did not include Space Exploration Technologies among its 10 best stocks to buy at the time of the source article. The service reported a 937% total average return compared with 214% for the S&P 500, with those returns measured as of September 26, 2026.

DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.