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A forecast released Thursday by Cox Automotive puts Hyundai Motor on track to outsell Ford Motor in quarterly U.S. sales for the first time. Cox expects the South Korean automaker to move ahead during the July through September period.

Hyundai is projected to deliver 511,421 vehicles, a 6.5% increase from a year earlier. Ford, meanwhile, is expected to post a 7.1% decline to 504,172 vehicles, leaving Hyundai ahead by 7,249 units under the forecast.

The anticipated shakeup would make Hyundai the third best selling automaker in the U.S., trailing only General Motors and Toyota Motor. It would also mark a major milestone for a company that has continued expanding its presence in the American market.

The potential change arrives as new vehicle sales have proven stronger than Cox previously expected. The company raised its 2026 forecast by roughly 2%, bringing the projection to 16.1 million vehicles.

“The automotive market this year has been pretty resilient,” Cox chief economist Jeremy Robb said during a Thursday media call. “New and used sales are both down year over year, but they’re not down really that much.”

Hyundai’s figures include its luxury Genesis brand and corporate sibling Kia. Those brands have made substantial inroads in the U.S. this year while Ford has faced production problems involving its critical F-Series pickup trucks.

Two supplier fires last year disrupted Ford’s pickup production and sales. The difficulties have weighed on a vehicle line that remains crucial to the automaker’s performance.

Hyundai CEO José Muñoz told CNBC last month that surpassing Ford in U.S. sales is not a company goal. He said such a result would stem from Hyundai’s continued emphasis on products and execution.

“We focus on delivering, the best, safe products to the customer with the highest possible quality,” Muñoz said, noting that Hyundai ranks No. 3 in global sales. “And we end up achieving unbelievable goals.”

Ford’s pickup problems are not the only challenge confronting Detroit. Cox analysts said Ford and crosstown rival GM are also being hindered by their limited hybrid offerings as that part of the market expands amid elevated gasoline prices.

“If you don’t have vehicles to catch [consumers] where they are, then there are other manufacturers that likely would step into the gap,” Cox executive analyst Erin Keating said during Thursday’s media call.

GM offers only a hybrid version of its Corvette. Ford’s hybrid lineup includes the Maverick and F-150 pickup trucks, while Toyota has established itself as the hybrid leader.

Toyota has also continued narrowing the U.S. sales gap with GM, the current No. 1 automaker. Cox said last quarter that Toyota could overtake GM in annual sales this year.

GM is expected to report third quarter sales of 671,706 vehicles, representing a 5.2% decline from a year earlier. Toyota is forecast to gain 2.2% and sell 642,707 vehicles during the quarter.

For the year, Toyota trails GM by fewer than 121,100 vehicles. If Toyota moves ahead, it would be only the second time the Japanese automaker has outsold GM in annual U.S. sales.

The first such occurrence came in 2021, when supply chain disruptions affected vehicle production. Toyota’s latest challenge comes as fuel costs put additional pressure on the large trucks and SUVs that remain vital to Detroit automakers.

Cox experts pointed to a AAA national average gasoline price of $4.48 per gallon. Those prices are affecting sales of big pickups and SUVs, complicating the renewed emphasis by GM, Ford and Chrysler parent Stellantis on gas guzzling V-8 engines.

That emphasis has followed the Trump administration’s deregulation of emissions and fuel economy standards. “I think that’s probably one of the callouts for the domestics is that they have made some interesting decisions around product,” Keating said.

Cox expects Stellantis to report a 1.3% decline in U.S. vehicle sales for the third quarter. Its total sales for the year are projected to rise 2.8% as the automaker carries out a companywide turnaround plan.

DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.