WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
  • McDonald’s shares have fallen nearly 31% from their February high and are headed toward their worst annual return since 2002.
  • US sales rose just 0.8% last quarter as customers pushed back against higher prices and a diminished restaurant experience.
  • McDonald’s announced an $8.5 billion improvement plan, but concerns about spending and franchisee resistance to discounts continue weighing on investors.
  • Wall Street remains broadly positive, with the average analyst price target implying a 28% return from Friday’s close.

DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.

McDonald’s Corp. is confronting a costly challenge as it tries to revive its sagging share price. The company must win back budget conscious diners who increasingly believe its menu no longer delivers compelling value.

Shares of the Big Mac maker have fallen nearly 31% from their February high and are headed toward their worst annual return since 2002. McDonald’s also guided for “slightly negative” US sales in the current quarter during an investor day earlier this week.

Sales rose only 0.8% last quarter, marking the slowest pace in more than a year. Customer frustration has extended beyond prices to an in store experience diminished by the disappearance of playgrounds and other once popular features.

Recent value promotions have produced mixed results. Meanwhile, an $8.5 billion multiyear initiative announced this week to improve service and food quality stirred concern that heavier spending could squeeze profits, triggering another selloff in the shares.

“Their prices have gone up substantially, and it's no longer viewed as the best value in food,” said Jacob Aiken-Phillips of Melius Research, who holds the only “sell” rating among analysts tracked by Bloomberg. “I could go to Texas Roadhouse instead and have an actual sit-down experience with my family that's not that much more expensive.”

A McDonald’s spokesperson on Friday repeated the company’s commitment to move urgently and place its US business in a stronger position by the end of 2026. That effort follows years of consumer complaints about rising menu costs.

McDonald’s pushed back against social media criticism in 2024 after a widely shared post showed a Big Mac meal priced at $18. The company said that meal came from one US location out of more than 13,700.

The chain also introduced $5 meal deals that year as it sought to counter the belief that its food had become too expensive. The Economist’s Big Mac Index shows the sandwich’s US price increased around 23% between 2019 and the end of 2025.

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McDonald’s began raising menu prices after the pandemic to offset surging expenses for beef and other ingredients, higher wages and increased fuel costs. At the same time, inflation and rising interest rates left customers more selective about where they spent their money.

Those pressures intensified competition across the restaurant industry. Chains have fought for customer traffic through limited time offers and aggressive discounts, forcing McDonald’s to defend its traditional reputation for affordable meals.

Some major rivals are currently posting stronger results. Restaurant Brands International Inc.’s Burger King recorded 8.5% US comparable sales growth in the latest quarter, beating estimates after a revamped Whopper and a Star Wars promotion.

Yum! Brands Inc. owned Taco Bell reported a 7% increase in same store sales as its $5, $7 and $9 meal boxes attracted customer visits. Shares of Restaurant Brands are up 5% this year, while Yum! Brands shares are down 8.4%.

Both have underperformed the S&P 500’s 13% gain, but McDonald’s has fared worse with a 23% decline this year. Investors also see friction with franchisees as a factor behind the chain’s weak sales performance.

Franchisees have resisted discounts, including this year’s menu featuring 10 items under $3, because such promotions can lift sales while reducing operator profits. Those operators are already contending with higher costs.

About a third of franchisees did not follow the company’s pricing guidance, and consumer awareness of the rollout fell below targeted levels, Chief Executive Officer Chris Kempczinski said during the latest earnings report. Nearly 95% of McDonald’s restaurants are franchised.

The company’s new “Next” initiative aims to address many of these problems through technology investments, restaurant upgrades and efforts to gain market share in chicken and beverages. McDonald’s also plans to refresh its PlayPlaces as part of a broad restaurant modernization effort.

Seaport Global analyst Eric Gonzalez welcomed the strategy but said meaningful results could take at least a year. McDonald’s shares trade at roughly 17 times forward earnings, well below their average valuation over the previous five years.

Wall Street nevertheless remains largely positive, with 24 buy equivalent ratings, 16 holds and one sell. The average analyst price target points to a 28% return from Friday’s closing price.

Rebecca Walser, chief investment officer at Walser Wealth Management, said investors want better food quality, stronger value and evidence of a lasting traffic recovery. Her firm owns the stock.

“McDonald's is part of the American parlance: the Happy Meals, the Hamburglar, Ronald McDonald, the PlayPlaces. They need to re-engineer that experience,” Walser said. “We really do believe that McDonald's will find its way through this.”

DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.