DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.

Bitcoin’s latest drawdown broke with the pattern established during the bear markets of 2018 to 2019 and 2022 to 2023. The cryptocurrency never produced a daily close below its Realized Price during the current cycle, according to Glassnode data.

Aggregate Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, known as NUPL, also remained positive throughout the cycle. Together, those readings point to less severe market wide stress than Bitcoin experienced during the two previous downturns.

Bitcoin spent months trading below its Realized Price during the earlier bear markets. This time, even the June low remained above that closely watched level, marking a significant difference in the depth of the drawdown.

Glassnode said the June low would be the shallowest of the three bear market lows included in its comparison if Bitcoin continues holding above the True Market Mean. That threshold has therefore become a central reference for judging the durability of the recovery.

At the June low, the share of Bitcoin supply in profit fell to approximately the level recorded at the November 2022 low. That meant a similarly large portion of the coin supply was underwater, but the overall scale of unrealized losses was different.

NUPL measures paper gains and losses across all coins. The metric never dropped below zero during the current cycle, unlike in 2018 and 2022, when aggregate unrealized losses pushed the reading into negative territory.

A positive NUPL reading does not mean every Bitcoin or every long term holder remains profitable. Likewise, Bitcoin trading above Realized Price does not establish that every holder purchased below the prevailing market price.

Glassnode identified the largest long term holder supply cluster between $84,000 and $85,000. The concentration represents an important area of holder supply, although it does not prove those coins are profitable or that their owners intend to sell them.

Above that cluster, the report placed the mean market value to realized value price at $96,700. Glassnode calculates that measure by multiplying Realized Price by Bitcoin’s long term average market value to realized value ratio.

Glassnode described $96,700 as the point where the average holder’s profit returns to its long term norm. Buyers who entered one to two years earlier near the top of the range also approach break even around that price.

On the downside, the True Market Mean at $77,000 serves as the report’s main support reference. Together, the $77,000 level, the holder cluster around $84,000 to $85,000, and the $96,700 mean price frame the recovery.

Long term holder market value to realized value remained above 1 during the current cycle. The available data also showed that selling pressure has remained restrained even as profitability improved across portions of the market.

Weekly realized profit during the current advance was only a fraction of the amounts recorded at the 2024 and 2025 market tops. That remained true even though almost all short term holders had returned to profit.

The next major test sits between $95,000 and $97,000, where options positioning meets the mean market value to realized value price. Positive gamma around the $95,000 strikes reached its highest reading on the chart included in the report.

Negative gamma, meanwhile, accumulated between the spot price and $92,000. Dealer hedging can accelerate Bitcoin’s moves between spot and $92,000, while tending to restrain price movement as the market approaches $95,000.

Demand indicators have improved, though they do not guarantee that the advance will continue. United States spot exchange traded funds recorded approximately $1.3 billion in inflows during the five days after the squeeze began, following two weeks of net outflows.

Bitcoin’s 24 hour spot volume more than doubled from its August trough, climbing 121% after the rally began. Even after that rebound, the seven day average remained approximately 30% below the level recorded one year earlier.

Holding above $84,000 would keep the path toward $96,700 open within Glassnode’s framework. A drop below $84,000 would bring the $77,000 True Market Mean back into focus, while a sustained move through $95,000 to $97,000 would challenge the overhead resistance cluster.

The evidence supports a narrower conclusion than an outright victory declaration. Bitcoin avoided both a negative aggregate NUPL reading and a daily close below Realized Price, while profit taking stayed light and both spot volume and exchange traded fund inflows recovered.

DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.