DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.

Gold and silver faced renewed pressure after elevated CPI and PPI readings strengthened expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase. Despite those headwinds, Heraeus analysts said gold ETF holdings climbed to their highest level of 2026 while precious metals markets navigated shifting rates, currencies and import taxes.

Gold briefly slipped below $4,100 per ounce after the September US CPI release. The initial market response pushed Treasury yields and the dollar higher while increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise rates again.

That reaction later partially reversed as the implied probability of a 25 basis point increase at the 28 October meeting declined. Gold subsequently recovered support at $4,100 per ounce as Treasury yields and the dollar eased.

Investor demand through gold ETFs moved against the pressure on bullion prices. Bloomberg tracked holdings reached a 2026 peak of 101.3 moz on 8 October, rising 5.3% from the 2026 low of 96.2 moz recorded on 20 July.

Holdings at the October peak were also around 2% higher than at the beginning of the year. They have since remained slightly above 101 moz even as gold struggled between roughly $4,100 and $4,200 per ounce, well below its January peak.

For much of 2026, changes in ETF holdings broadly followed movements in gold prices, according to Heraeus. Holdings declined during the correction from the January high before recovering as bullion prices rebounded through August, but the two measures have since diverged.

The analysts said ETF holdings can lag turning points because investors may retain positions or add exposure during price declines while waiting for another rally. That behavior can continue until investors conclude that a renewed advance is not imminent.

Demand has also expanded geographically. Asian listed funds accounted for almost half of the increase in global holdings during the 12 months through September, compared with around 30% from US listed funds and 20% from European funds.

Kazakhstan, one of the largest sovereign gold buyers of 2026, is moving in the opposite direction. The National Bank of Kazakhstan plans to reduce gold from around 78% of its international reserves to 75% by the end of the year after holdings reached 386 tonnes.

The bank ranked as the world’s fourth largest reported central bank buyer through August. It added around 36 tonnes during the first eight months of 2026, but plans to make the reduction through a combination of options and physical bullion sales.

Heraeus said elevated US Treasury yields have increased the relative attraction of dollar assets while the bank seeks to reduce concentration risk. At current reserve values, a 3 percentage point reduction in gold’s share would represent about 15 tonnes of exposure, although physical sales will depend on prices and derivatives use.

The analysts characterized the move as portfolio rebalancing rather than evidence of a wider reversal in central bank gold demand. Spot gold remained near session lows during the early part of the North American session, last trading at $4,151.80 per ounce for a daily loss of 0.33%.

Silver also weakened after inflation readings exceeded expectations. The metal fell through support near $60 per ounce and briefly approached July lows around $55 as rate increase expectations initially drove Treasury yields and the dollar higher.

The implied probability of a 25 basis point increase at the 28 October meeting subsequently fell below 30%. Silver recovered above $57 as the 10 year Treasury yield and dollar retreated from recent yearly highs, although Heraeus said the break below $60 left the technical picture weaker.

India’s changing import tax framework is also affecting banks and wholesale precious metals demand. The government confirmed that silver, gold and platinum imported by banks and nominated agencies are subject to a 3% Integrated Goods and Services Tax.

Officials said on 8 October that the exemption for those channels had not been extended beyond 31 March, placing import routes on equal tax terms. Banks had already been paying the tax since April following a monthlong pause in imports while the rules remained unclear.

Because the levy is recoverable as an input tax credit, Heraeus said its primary effect is on working capital rather than final costs. India imported 232 moz of silver in 2025, an amount equivalent to around 20% of global demand.

Silver surrendered some early gains on Monday morning but remained positive for the session. Spot silver last traded at $57.318 per ounce, representing a daily gain of 0.61%.

DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.