Tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump drove up the cost of dozens of everyday products that otherwise would have become cheaper, according to research from the New York Federal Reserve. The findings put a measurable price on one of the administration’s central economic policies.
The cost of 67 categories of goods was 2.9 percentage points higher as of February because of the tariffs, the New York Fed researchers found. Without those levies, prices for the products examined would have declined by almost 1%.
The report offers what the New York Fed described as the clearest evidence yet of how Trump’s tariff policy affected consumers’ wallets. The levies were a core feature of his latest presidential campaign and his second term in the White House.
Economists had broadly expected tariffs to raise prices, but determining their precise effect had proved difficult. The policy changed over time, while limited transparency surrounding how companies establish prices further complicated attempts to measure the impact.
The researchers did not identify the 67 categories of goods included in their analysis. Even without that breakdown, their findings showed a broad increase among the sampled consumer products compared with where prices would have stood without tariffs.
For every percentage point increase in the average tariff, consumer goods prices were roughly 0.25% higher one year later, according to the research. That calculation points to effects that continued well beyond the initial imposition of a levy.
Annual price growth among the dozens of tracked goods reached its peak at the beginning of 2026, the report said. Consumers are still expected to face elevated prices into 2027 because of the tariff policy.
The timing challenges the idea that tariffs create only an immediate adjustment in prices. According to the researchers, the consequences continued working through consumer markets after the levies first took effect.
Roughly two thirds of the price impact tied to tariffs came directly from the levies themselves, the New York Fed reported. The remaining increase resulted from knock on effects involving companies based in the U.S. that use imported components and materials in their products.
Those indirect effects meant tariffs could raise costs even when the finished consumer product was not itself imported. Domestic companies relying on foreign inputs faced higher expenses that could ultimately appear in the prices charged to shoppers.
“Tariffs have a larger and more drawn-out impact on consumer prices than the direct effect alone would suggest,” the study’s three authors, Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David Weinstein, wrote.
Trump had argued that companies could absorb the additional tariff costs instead of passing them to customers through higher prices. The New York Fed team found that around 26% of last year’s tariff increases ultimately flowed into higher consumer prices.
The findings indicate that companies absorbed part of the added expense, but shoppers still paid a portion through price increases. The report therefore provides a concrete estimate of how much of the tariff increase reached consumers during the period studied.
The Supreme Court struck down many of Trump’s tariffs in February, leading to billions of dollars in refunds to retailers. The White House nevertheless vowed to continue pursuing levies through alternative measures.
Products imported from many countries now often face tariffs of about 10%, according to the source report. In many cases, that level is significantly below the rates applied under the earlier round of tariffs.
The New York Fed’s analysis covered tariffs imposed during 2025 and early 2026. Its central finding was stark: prices across the sampled goods rose because of those levies, while the same group of products would otherwise have registered a decline.