DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.

Bitcoin is heading toward a second consecutive losing October, yet Galaxy Research says the bear market may already be finished. The cryptocurrency is trading just above $80,000, down more than 4% month to date as investors confront persistent selling pressure alongside improving long term signals.

The market’s latest move leaves Bitcoin caught between weak monthly performance and a potentially stronger underlying structure. While the red October trend remains in place, Galaxy believes recent price action could represent accumulation after the market established a potential bottom.

Support for the bullish case arrived through U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds. Those funds recorded $110 million in net inflows on October 26, bringing positive flows back after two consecutive days of outflows.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, known as IBIT, accounted for nearly all the gains during that session. The renewed inflows offered Bitcoin an encouraging signal as traders watched whether institutional demand would persist.

The broader digital asset picture was less convincing. U.S. spot Ether ETFs recorded between $88 million and $90 million in outflows during the same session, showing that institutional interest was not universally bullish across the cryptocurrency market.

Galaxy Research declared the Bitcoin bear market over in an October 26 assessment. The firm argued that Bitcoin had entered an accumulation phase after potentially reaching a bottom near $76,500 on June 30.

A central piece of Galaxy’s argument involves Bitcoin’s recovery above important long term moving averages. The cryptocurrency has secured multiple weekly closes above the 50 week moving average, which Galaxy regards as evidence that the market’s fundamental structure has improved.

Bitcoin was trading around $80,000 when the assessment emerged. That placed the cryptocurrency 5% above the 50 week moving average, which was sitting near $76,000 at the time.

Galaxy also pointed to an easing of several sources of selling pressure. Long term holders have reduced their distribution, while macro traders and funds focused on basis strategies have lowered their exposure.

Asset managers have also substantially reduced their net long positions in CME Bitcoin futures from previous highs. These shifts suggest that some of the leveraged or speculative pressure weighing on the market has already diminished.

That reduction matters because a market can begin stabilizing as leveraged or speculative sellers leave, even before a powerful new group of buyers arrives. Galaxy’s assessment therefore does not depend entirely on an immediate surge in demand.

Still, the firm’s bullish thesis comes with a clear condition. A sustained weekly close below the 50 week moving average, without a rapid recovery, would weaken the assessment and increase the danger of another move lower.

Bitcoin’s immediate technical test is the region between $75,800 and $76,500 around its 50 week moving average. Holding that area while attracting sustained spot demand would strengthen the argument that the market is building a durable base.

Continued ETF inflows, combined with subdued selling pressure, could help Bitcoin establish firmer support for another advance. Under Galaxy’s analysis, the current phase looks more like accumulation than the beginning of a fresh bearish decline.

The opposite scenario remains a serious threat. If ETF inflows disappear and Bitcoin loses support around its long term moving average, Galaxy’s bullish price thesis would face a substantial challenge.

For now, Bitcoin is flashing two competing signals at once. The cryptocurrency is moving toward another red October, but improving fund flows, repeated weekly closes above a key moving average, and fading selling pressure support Galaxy’s argument that the bear market’s worst phase may be over.

DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.