DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.

Bitcoin has shed about a sixth of its value in four days, falling to its lowest point since July. Yet the cryptocurrency’s recurring four year cycle suggests the selling pressure could be nearing its expiration if history repeats.

From Wednesday afternoon through Saturday night, bitcoin dropped about 17% to a low near $62,000. The decline erased roughly $250 billion in market value, according to Yahoo Finance calculations, and left the cryptocurrency about 50% below its record.

Bitcoin also fell beneath its 200 day moving average, a trend line closely watched by traders. The breach adds another technical warning even as the historical calendar begins pointing toward a possible turn.

Scott Melker, host of The Daily Wolf, previously believed the familiar cycle had stopped working. “I was actually a deep believer that the four-year cycle was over,” Melker told Yahoo Finance at its Invest conference Thursday.

His view shifted after bitcoin reached its top almost exactly when cycle forecasts suggested it would. Melker said the yearlong decline that followed has also moved in line with the established pattern.

The cycle centers on bitcoin’s halving, which reduces the reward for mining new bitcoin by half roughly every four years. By cutting that reward, the event slows the rate at which the coin’s supply grows.

The four most recent halvings occurred in 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024, with each taking place during a presidential election year. In every case, bitcoin reached a cycle record 12 to 18 months afterward.

The timing between major peaks has been strikingly consistent. Bitcoin’s October 2025 record arrived 1,426 days after its November 2021 peak, based on Yahoo Finance calculations using CoinMarketCap data, while the preceding two peaks were separated by 1,424 days.

The downturns have followed a pattern as well. The previous three bear markets reached their bottoms 12 to 13 months after their peaks, and the same pattern appeared when the Binance hack erased $100 billion from crypto.

Bitcoin has now moved beyond 13 months since its Oct. 6, 2025 record. That timing places the current decline within the historical window in which previous bear markets finally exhausted themselves.

The lowest price of the current slide came on July 1, when bitcoin traded near $57,750. That low arrived only nine months after the peak and stood 54% below the record.

Previous bitcoin bear markets were considerably harsher, producing declines ranging from 77% to 85%. If the July price proves to have been the bottom, the current bear market would be bitcoin’s shortest and shallowest yet.

The historical setup leaves two possible paths outlined by the cycle. Bitcoin could retest the early July low, roughly 7% below Saturday’s low, before turning upward, or the July level may already mark the bottom, allowing the latest decline to end at a higher low.

Under either scenario, the four year calendar indicates that a reversal could emerge within the coming weeks or months. That outlook remains conditional because the available history covers only three cycles, and bitcoin has departed from its usual pattern before.

The midterm calendar offers another point of alignment. Each of the past three bear market lows occurred within roughly 10 weeks after a midterm vote, and this year’s vote took place in early November. Bitcoin more than doubled in the year following each of those lows.

Still, the pattern is hardly guaranteed. In March 2024, bitcoin reached a record before that year’s halving, marking the first time it had achieved a new peak ahead of the supply event.

Traders are watching two important chart levels. The July low near $57,750 is the lower threshold, and a decisive move beneath it would indicate that the bear market is running deeper than the cycle implies.

The upper threshold is September’s high near $87,000. Bitcoin would need to break above that level to place its comeback firmly back on course and strengthen the argument that another bullish phase has begun.

Melker expects the recovery to arrive sooner rather than later. “If the cycle is intact, it would indicate that in the coming months, we'll start to see bitcoin really ramp up,” he said. “The news tends to follow the chart rather than otherwise. There's no greater marketing for an asset than higher prices.”

DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.