DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.

Americans are voting today, but precious metals investors face a narrower question: What has gold done after previous midterm elections? The historical record offers a clear account of past price movements, though it does not predict what will happen next.

There have been 13 midterm elections since 1974. Gold’s average price in the following November was higher than its election month average after eight of them and lower after the other five.

Across all 13 comparisons, gold recorded an average change of +14% and a median change of +15%. The two latest midterms in the study, 2018 and 2022, were followed by gold price increases of +20% and +15%, respectively.

Those broad figures conceal an unusually wide range of outcomes. The strongest result was a 90% increase, while the weakest was a 22% decline that erased more than one fifth of the value of gold holdings.

Eleven of the 13 observations fell between a loss of 8% and a gain of 28%. That spread shows the limitations of reducing decades of market history to one average.

The most dramatic increase followed the 1978 midterms, which left Democrats controlling both chambers. Gold’s November average climbed from about $206 to about $392 an ounce over the next 12 months, producing a 90% gain.

That period included the second oil shock, the Iranian revolution, the November 1979 hostage crisis and Paul Volcker’s arrival at the Federal Reserve in August. Gold’s advance continued beyond the study window, passing $850 briefly in January 1980 following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in late December.

The 1974 midterms produced the opposite result while also leaving Democrats with comfortable majorities. Gold’s November average dropped from about $182 to about $142 over the following 12 months, a 22% decline and the beginning of gold’s first major bear market of the floating currency era.

The 2010 comparison offers the clearest example of timing around an election. Republicans secured a House majority on November 2, and the Federal Reserve announced $600 billion in Treasury purchases on November 3.

Gold’s November average was 27% higher one year later. The sequence describes what happened after the election, but it does not establish whether the election or any particular economic development caused the increase.

Silver rose after nine of the 13 midterms, delivering an average change of +20% and a median move of +12%. Its average was lifted substantially by the 1978 comparison, when silver’s November average jumped from about $5.90 to about $16.70, a gain of 183%.

Silver did not consistently beat gold. Its losses were smaller than gold’s during three of its four declining years, while silver rose in 1998 as gold fell.

Eight midterms since 1974 changed the majority in at least one congressional chamber: 1986, 1994, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022. Five elections left the balance of power unchanged: 1974, 1978, 1982, 1990 and 1998.

Gold averaged a +15% move following a change in majority control, compared with +11% when control remained unchanged. The unchanged group ranged from a 22% loss to a 90% gain, largely because of the extraordinary 1978 result.

Thirteen elections remain a small sample. Although the median midterm change of +15% exceeds the +5.9% median 12 month change following any month since 1971, the limited number of observations does not establish a dependable pattern.

The next comparison will measure the monthly averages for November 2026 and November 2027. Gold and silver figures compare average November prices in each election year with November averages one year later, using nominal United States dollars per troy ounce.

The data come from Kitco Research, which includes 55 years of monthly average gold and silver prices from Kitco.com and the World Bank. The comparisons measure monthly average price changes rather than returns from a trade, and nothing in the analysis constitutes a forecast or investment advice.

DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.