DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.

US holiday retail sales are projected to climb 4.5% compared with a year earlier during the final two months of 2026, according to research from Visa's Business and Economics Insights. The forecast would represent the strongest holiday sales growth since 2021.

The Nov. 5 research presents an upbeat outlook for retailers as consumers prepare for the holiday season. Visa expects spending to remain resilient despite the pressure that elevated prices continue to place on household purchasing decisions and seasonal budgets.

Solid income growth and household wealth are expected to support that resilience, according to the research. Those financial foundations are helping sustain consumer demand even as inflation influences how shoppers divide their money among gifts, travel, events and other holiday purchases.

The research said high inflation is set to play a role in where “holiday dollars go.” Visa nevertheless expects another healthy season because consumers continue to benefit from income growth, even while higher prices remain part of the spending picture.

“Income growth continues to provide an important foundation for spending and while higher prices remain part of the picture, we expect another healthy holiday season,” said Michael Brown, principal US economist at Visa.

Visa's outlook follows strong quarterly results from the two major payment companies named in the report. Visa and Mastercard both surpassed earnings estimates for the quarter ended September 30, providing another indication that consumer spending has remained resilient.

Holiday gift budgets are also expected to increase. Consumers plan to spend an average of $777 on holiday gifts in 2026, an increase of 5.6% from the $736 average recorded in 2025, according to the research.

That increase is unfolding even as customers continue adjusting their behavior in response to high prices. The higher average gift budget and the projected 4.5% retail sales gain indicate that consumers still plan to devote more money to the holidays.

Traditional gifts are expected to capture a larger share of those budgets than experiences. Although more than half of surveyed consumers said they wanted travel and events, only 15% plan to prioritize purchasing experiences during the holiday period.

By comparison, 27% of surveyed consumers intend to purchase physical gifts instead. The findings suggest that traditional holiday purchases will remain a central destination for consumer dollars, even as many respondents express interest in travel and events.

Airfare spending revealed a particularly sharp difference based on household income. Only households earning more than $200,000 increased their holiday airfare spending, while consumers in lower income groups reduced their bookings, according to the research.

The divide in airfare spending shows that the projected holiday growth will not be distributed evenly across every income category or purchase type. Higher earning households increased their spending on flights, while other groups pulled back from that portion of their holiday plans.

Even with those differences, Visa's overall forecast calls for the fastest holiday retail sales expansion in five years. The expected growth rests on continued consumer resilience, supported by income gains and household wealth while inflation continues affecting individual spending choices.

The findings combine a stronger retail sales forecast with rising average gift budgets and a clear preference for physical presents over experiences. At the same time, the airfare figures show that high prices continue to shape which households expand holiday spending and where they choose to spend it.

DISCLAIMER: GoldInvestors.news is not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by GoldInvestors.news are from the personal research and experience of the owner of the site and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information is accurate and up to date, occasionally unintended errors and misprints may occur.