Expectations for Federal Reserve policy have swung sharply, with 86% of CNBC survey respondents anticipating a hike and 55% forecasting multiple increases as oil prices surge and broader inflation refuses to cool.
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.041% as surging oil prices fueled inflation fears and traders assigned greater than 92% odds to a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate increase. Longer maturity yields also hit levels unseen since 2007.
Gold and silver sank as surging oil prices, stubborn inflation and Treasury yields approaching 5% strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase, overpowering safe haven demand generated by escalating uncertainty in the Middle East.
Warnings from OpenAI and Anthropic leaders jolted the AI trade, sending SanDisk down 5% and Nvidia down 3% in premarket trading as executives raised fears about lost control, concentrated power, and development moving faster than safety measures.
Bank of America shares slid 5% after CEO Brian Moynihan forecast a greater than 10% drop in third quarter investment banking fees, marking a dramatic slowdown from the bank’s blockbuster second quarter performance.
Trump says existing government powers can police AI companies without new restrictions, while Amodei and other technology leaders urge slower development amid warnings about safety, cyberattacks, and the escalating competition with China.
Kevin Warsh must rally a divided Federal Open Market Committee behind an expected rate increase as officials debate persistent inflation, temporary price shocks and whether tighter policy should continue beyond this week’s closely watched decision.
The 10 year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5% as investors weighed persistent inflation, enormous debt issuance and a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase, while stocks continued to show resilience despite mounting pressure in the bond market.